A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI, #206 - POLITICAL OBSERVATORY (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

Great Britain ---- The by-elections in Great Britain are ringing alarm 
bells over the shaky Labour leadership of the Starmer government, which 
suffered a devastating defeat in the by-election for the House of 
Commons seat in Gorton and Denton, a constituency near Manchester. This 
diverse constituency includes traditionally working-class neighborhoods 
once strongly Labour-leaning, now leaning toward Reform as well as a 
large number of university students and Muslim residents. The defeat is 
directly attributable to Starmer, who vetoed the candidacy of Andy 
Burnham, the popular Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, from running in 
the by-election, considering him a potential rival for the Labour Party 
leadership. This is Labour's second defeat in a by-election since their 
return to government in July 2024.
Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber, won with 
41% of the vote, ahead of candidates from Reform UK (29%) and the Labour 
Party (25%), becoming the fifth Green Party MP in Parliament. For the 
first time, the Greens have won a by-election thanks to a widespread 
campaign on the ground that managed to mobilize 28% of the 
constituency's Muslim population, ready to vote for them because of 
their pro-Palestinian stance and strong condemnation of Israel's bloody 
military retaliation in Gaza. Farage's party candidate, a professor who 
has become a television commentator for the right-wing broadcaster GB 
News, came in second.
Significantly, the Greens, conquering what was historically considered a 
Labour stronghold, garnered over 40% of the vote, thus proving 
themselves a viable alternative to Nigel Farage's Trump-led Reform UK. 
This is a collapse with serious consequences for the increasingly frail 
prime minister, who continues to see his leadership of the government 
and the party under threat. This has intensified following the 
Mandelson-Epstein scandal, which forced the resignation of one of his 
closest aides, Peter Mandelson, the seasoned Labour politician, 
appointed by Starmer as UK ambassador to Washington, to reward him for 
his support within the party to expel Jeremy Corbyn and marginalize 
Labour's left-wing wing.
The British leader's crisis is driven by mounting economic and social 
problems, including the high cost of living and the decline of public 
services and welfare, the education and research system, growing 
spending on support for Ukraine, and the recent developments in the 
Epstein case.
The Greens' success is due to the electorate's disillusionment with 
Labour's rightward shift, which betrayed Starmer's promises by embracing 
the right's anti-immigration policies. This was facilitated by the 
Greens' downplaying environmental policies to support far-left 
positions, proposing tax increases for the wealthy and openly supporting 
the Palestinian cause. The right fights with left-wing positions.

Germany

Earlier this month, the Greens won the elections in the state of 
Baden-Württemberg, located in southwest Germany, with a 30% victory, 
surpassing Chancellor Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) (27.7%). 
AfL (18%) emerged as the third largest party, doubling its support 
compared to the previous election. The SPD fell to its lowest point 
(5.5%), barely above the electoral threshold; the FDP and the Left 
remained outside with 4.4% of the vote.
Baden-Württemberg, governed by a CDU-Green alliance, was a particularly 
close watch because it marked the transition from a Green leader, in 
government since 2011, to a new phase, led by the new leader Özdemir, 
who was called upon to defend his party's primacy, and Hagel (CDU), who 
was committed to restoring the CDU to the regional leadership. The Green 
Party candidate stated that he wanted to continue the collaboration with 
the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with which the Greens have 
governed for two terms. He stated that the future coalition must be the 
result of a partnership of equals focused on the good of 
Baden-Württemberg, and highlighted the results achieved over the past 10 
years as a shared success of which the CDU can also
be proud.
This result demonstrates that the far right could consolidate its 
position even outside the eastern Länder, where it had built its 
strongest gains, and that the political and social unrest reflected in 
its advance is creeping into a region like Baden-Württemberg, one of the 
pillars of the German automotive industry, home to giants like Daimler 
and Porsche and home to groups like Mercedes-Benz and Bosch. However, 
Baden-Württemberg is now one of the places where the crisis of the 
German industrial model has been most visible, pressured by competition 
from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, weak demand, and a 
still-sluggish national recovery after two years of recession, driven 
primarily by high energy costs, a direct consequence of the war in Ukraine.
For Merz, the CDU's failure to win represents a problem compounded by 
its subservient stance toward Trump and the financial strain of the war.
Elections in Rhineland-Palatinate were held on March 22, with 3.2 
million voters voting. After 35 years, the CDU overtook the SPD, which 
had been in uninterrupted government. Merz's party's victory is largely 
a consequence of the SPD's decline, which is now experiencing a 
full-blown crisis due to economic stagnation, rising youth crime, and 
its pro-war policy in Ukraine. Proof of this is the AfD's renewed 
success, which hovered around 20%, up 11 percentage points compared to 
the previous elections. This success in the two western German states 
indicates that the neo-Nazi party's chances of governing in the next 
general election are growing significantly, thanks to its primary 
strategy for combating the crisis: a return to purchasing Russian gas 
and oil. The next regional elections will be held in Saxony-Anhalt on 
September 6 and in Nörburg-Vorpommern on September 20.

France

The first and second rounds of municipal elections in France were marked 
by low turnout and strong polarization on both the right and left, 
further weakening President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition. Voter 
turnout in the first round was below 59%, an increase compared to the 
2020 municipal elections, which were impacted by Covid, but down from 
the 63.5% recorded in 2014, with a record 42% abstention in the second 
round. In the second round, turnout dropped to 57.82%. The French far 
right, with Marine Le Pen's National Rally, achieved its best result 
ever in these municipal elections, considered a test case for the 
presidential election. The moderate left holds firm in the major cities, 
with Paris remaining its main stronghold. Emmanuel Grégoire, candidate 
of the Socialist Party and former deputy to outgoing mayor Anne Hidalgo, 
is the winner. La France Insoumise (LFI) scored a historic victory in 
Saint-Denis,
wresting the municipality from the Socialists and becoming the dominant 
force in the Île-de-France region after the capital. The only centrist 
who can consider himself satisfied is former Prime Minister Edouard 
Philippe. Re-elected mayor of Le Havre with over 43 percent of the vote, 
Philippe has cemented his leadership of the Horizons party and, more 
importantly, his future presidential candidacy. His success contrasts 
with the decline of Macron's official candidates, who in many provinces 
lost votes to right-wing lists.
Over 904,000 candidates competed for elected office in approximately 
35,000 municipalities across the country, from large cities to villages 
with just a few dozen inhabitants. The election campaign was largely 
overshadowed by the war with Iran and its consequences, particularly its 
impact on fuel prices.
The results show relative stability among the main political blocs, with 
twelve right-wing cities in 2026 (the same number as in 2020), six 
centrist cities (one more than in 2020), 22 left-wing cities (two fewer 
than in 2020), and two far-right cities (one more than in 2020).
The biggest losers in these elections are primarily the 
environmentalists, who have retained only three of the seven cities they 
led before these municipal elections. The right and center have 
strengthened in medium-sized cities. However, extending the analysis to 
all cities with more than 10,000 inhabitants, the balance tips in favor 
of the right and center, as it appears that municipalities classified on 
the left excluding local lists are much fewer in 2026 than in 2020. 
Municipalities classified as "different left" number only 148 compared 
to 196 six years ago. In 2026, municipalities classified as socialist or 
left-unionist number no more than 129, compared to 141 in 2020. The 
decline is particularly marked for the Communist Party, which in 2026 
has only seven municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants, 
compared to 25 in 2020 controlled by the Ministry of the Interior. 
Municipalities with a mixed right-wing, LR, or UDI majority have 
increased to 464, compared to 455 in 2020. Municipalities led by a 
centrist mayor (Renaissance, MoDem, Orizzonti) have increased to 177, 
compared to 200 nationally, and their allies now control 37 cities, 
compared to nine in 2020.
The conflict on the left is looming particularly harsh, as evidenced by 
the first secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, declared that 
Jean-Luc Mélenchon has "become a burden on the left," condemning, on 
Monday morning on BFM-TV/RMC, the "excesses" and "anti-Semitic 
tendencies" of the leader of La France Insoumise. However, as usual, 
most political parties have declared themselves victorious.

Slovenia

A total of 2.1 million voters cast their ballots in the country. The 
outgoing governing coalition consisted of the liberal Freedom Movement 
(Gibanje Svoboda), the Social Democrats (SD), and the ecosocialist left 
(Levica). The election was marked by extreme polarization and 
allegations of corruption and foreign interference, particularly by an 
Israeli fixer firm supporting the right-wing party led by Janez Jansha, 
a Trump supporter with ties to Victor Ornan.
Slovenia chose continuity, but it did so by the skin of its teeth, and 
the party led by leader Robert Golob and his Freedom Movement (GS) will 
need to form a coalition government with smaller parties to govern.
"At a time when populists across Europe are working to undermine 
democratic institutions, Slovenia stands out for having chosen a 
different path a stable, centrist, and pro-European leadership to 
counter far-right policies.

Hungary

On April 12, Hungarians will go to the polls to renew their parliament, 
and for the first time after four consecutive terms of unchallenged rule 
(16 years), Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party are seriously at risk of 
defeat. His challenger is PMagyar, a former member of his own party, 
from which he left after revealing a minor Epstein case within Orbán's 
supporters. The defector took over the leadership of the Tisza party (an 
acronym for Tisztelet és Szabadság, "Respect and Freedom," in 2024), a 
movement founded in 2020 that had previously been irrelevant. Magyar has 
appealed to that segment of the electorate tired of Orban's rule and the 
system of power he has built, surrounding himself with relatives and 
clients and organizing a financial network that profits from public 
contracts and manages lavish European funding, amassing copious personal 
wealth and nurturing a widespread network of supporters. In this way, he 
has revitalized an opposition stunned by years of electoral defeats and 
harsh repression through liberticidal legislation.
Faced with the threat to his power, Orban has taken action by waving the 
flag of nationalism and has identified Ukraine, and the financing of its 
war against Russia, as the reasons that should drive the Hungarian 
people to continue supporting his policies. Orban has been wise to point 
out that Ukraine forcefully beats Hungarians into conscription and sends 
Hungarian-speaking and ethnic Hungarians from Transcarpathia, a region 
Ukraine has annexed, despite it being a land of Hungarian language, 
culture, and tradition. He also denounced the interruption of the Druzba 
Friendship pipeline, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, 
as an action contrary to Hungary's economic interests, depriving the 
country of the low-cost energy essential to its economy. As a 
retaliatory measure, Orban withheld his consent to Ukraine's accession 
to the European Union and denounced the corruption of the Kiev regime, 
exploiting the seizure by Hungarian customs officers of a convoy from 
the Ukrainian state bank Oschadbank, carrying EUR35 million (US$40 
million) and 9 kg of gold, bound for Switzerland, through the country, 
raising suspicions that they were being used to finance his opponent's 
election campaign.
Clearly, a battle to the death is underway, especially considering that 
Orban's party is significantly behind in the most credible polls and 
that the European Union is certainly doing everything it can to 
replicate the ploy used in Romania to ensure the victory of pro-EU 
candidates.
Of course, Orban's illiberal regime, its repression of civil and 
democratic liberties, its denial of the rule of law, and its sex-phobic 
and obscurantist policies, do not inspire any sympathy, nor do the labor 
laws that force Hungarian workers into compulsory and unpaid labor for 
employers. But Brussels is not confident in relying on Magyar to 
neutralize Orban. The opposition candidate is not gentle toward Ukraine, 
nor toward European politics and the European Union: perhaps he does so 
out of electoral opportunism, but he remains highly ambiguous about his 
future intentions.

The Editorial Staff

https://www.ucadi.org/2026/03/28/osservatorio-politico-10/
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