A-Infos (en) Italy, UCADI, #206 - THE PARTY'S OVER (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

The gravy train is over: Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain will never be the 
same again, even though hoteliers and tour operators will do everything 
they can to make up for lost ground, offering vacation packages for well 
under EUR2,500 a week to crowds of tourists looking to enjoy a sunny 
getaway out of season.
Staff at major hotels and resorts have been asked to take paid leave due 
to the drastic reduction in guests, which has significantly reduced 
their daily workload. The ongoing Iranian bombings have meant that what 
until a few days ago was considered a prime destination for 
entrepreneurs and investors, influencers, and oligarchs from around the 
world, fleeing after plundering their companies, and models and 
actresses in search of easy careers, a territory that was once a safe 
haven for more or less clean capital, thanks in part to an extremely 
favorable tax regime, has now become an unsafe place from which to flee. 
Those feeling the pinch are not only the ruling classes, composed of 
unlikely monarchs who relied on US protection to prosper and enrich 
themselves, and who ensured support for the dollar and investments in 
the United States. They are also the populations, largely composed of 
slaves from all the poorest countries in Asia who replaced a virtually 
nonexistent native population. In exchange, they obtained guarantees of 
difficult but impossible earnings in their countries of origin, 
guaranteed by the fact that they operated in a speculative bubble in 
which they could benefit from an apparent welfare system that, with the 
tourism crisis, is disappearing. Oil and gas resources alone are not 
enough to guarantee economic well-being and mass employment, and this 
Persian Gulf bubble of prosperity is preparing for a structural crisis 
that will be difficult to overcome. No more crowded shopping malls, the 
streets are deserted, and fear reigns: the Iranians have cleverly 
targeted the financial district near Burj Khalifa with the aim of 
undermining the UAE's economy. Meanwhile, one of the towers of the Dubai 
International Financial Centre is burning due to the impact of an 
Iranian drone, and the district, home to more than 1,500 businesses and 
over 50,000 workers, is deserted, and the world's largest gas field is 
burning. Many are fleeing as soon as they can, businesses of all kinds 
are reducing staff or requiring people to work remotely, while airline 
flights depart full and return empty, picking up those who remain, 
closing accounts, and hastily relocating businesses.

Ecological disaster and logistics crisis

The war is not only deteriorating economic relations, development 
prospects, and social life, but also, and above all, the environment. 
Particularly affected are the 33 islands in the Persian Gulf, located 
off the northern coast of the Arabian Peninsula and comprising the 
Kingdom of Bahrain. Once-crowded beaches are now deserted, while the 
once-crystalline sea, the rich and beautiful marine fauna and flora, are 
now at risk of severe pollution, even jeopardized by oil spills pouring 
into the sea from stricken tankers and the destroyed coastal facilities 
from which the oil was loaded onto ships. Burning oil and gas wells 
pollute the air.

The paradise advertised in elegant tourist brochures is increasingly 
turning into a living hell, while the warring parties have no qualms 
about sparing the desalination plants that, by providing water, make 
life possible, ultimately driving locals and tourists away. The blockade 
of the Strait of Hormuz, affecting not only oil tanker traffic but also 
merchant shipping, drastically reduces food availability. This area does 
not produce even the bare essentials for survival, and everything must 
be imported, in a situation where maritime traffic is virtually nonexistent.
It is currently estimated that more than 3,200 ships are stranded in the 
Gulf, unable to dock and lacking sufficient supplies of food and water.
But even more serious consequences, if possible, concern logistics, 
given that the airports of Abu Dhabi and Dubai are essential hubs for 
air traffic on routes between Europe, Australia, and the Far East. The 
conflict developing in the air, the constant arrival of drones, the 
destruction of airport facilities, or at least parts of them, and the 
reduction of radar services that monitor and ensure air traffic, make 
the use of these airports impractical and extremely risky.

It's no coincidence that the Formula One races scheduled for April in 
Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, as well as the MotoGP races scheduled for 
Qatar, have been canceled. It may not be the end of the world, but it's 
certainly starting to look like one. What is certain is that it is the 
end of a world, that of the oil-tourism bubble on which the countries in 
the area thrived.
It's certainly true that what is happening is damaging not only the 
Persian Gulf countries, but also Europe as a whole, which, after 
severing ties with Russia for oil and gas supplies, sourced energy 
resources from this region. It is even more damaging to China, Japan, 
and the countries of the Far East, which relied on Iranian and Gulf oil 
fields to fuel their economies. What happened has caused the United 
States to lose its aura as the great protector of these countries' 
stability, to the point that it is more than likely that, once the war 
is over, the capital these countries hold will refrain from making the 
investments promised to Trump to the United States, especially since 
they will have to be used to finance reconstruction.

Undoubtedly, Russia and China will take advantage of this, giving them 
the opportunity to re-enter the Middle East in a major way, determining 
its new balance of power.

Whatever the outcome of the war on the battlefield, from a strategic 
standpoint, Iran has already won the war.

G. L.

https://www.ucadi.org/2026/03/28/la-festa-e-finita/
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